Did Sherlock Choose the Right Bottle?

Frankly, since watching 'A Study in Pink' that question has been on many people's minds. So did he?

Let's look at the facts.

The big difference between the cabbie and his 'playmate' is that the cabbie and his playmate have utterly different motives. The cabbie's passenger wants to prove their wits. They want to show off; pretty much what Sherlock is trying to do all the time. The cabbie on the other hand does not mind what other people are thinking about him. His motive is money. He has a sponsor and he wants to earn as much as possible by playing along.

Another point which should not be ignored is that the cabbie knows which is the good bottle. And the playmate knows the cabbie knows... And the cabbie knows the playmate knows that he knows... You get the idea.

Furthermore, the cabbie states that he's secret is that he's able to read people's minds. But is that enough? After all, people are changing their minds all the time, especially when they are about to make such a life threatening decision. There are simply too many variables the cabbie cannot account for. Even if the victim's first idea was to take the other bottle, out of instinct, and then, as the reasonable part of their mind is kicking in, to change their decision and to take the one handed by the cabbie. Then they change their minds again, thinking that maybe that's what the cabbie wanted them to do all along, and so on. Reading the other's mind is not helping in this game as before the cabbie tosses the good/bad bottle his victim has not made up their mind completely. This means, the cabbie does not know which bottle to draw his victim's attention to before doing so.

Yet, he has played the game 4 times and the odds seems to have been irresponsibly in his favour. And  here he is, trying his luck for a 5th time. What's more, he seems to be sure that he'll win again, even when facing the most clever man walking the surface of the earth. If he had had doubts, he could have switched off the phone and chosen another passenger instead. And even after making Sherlock choosing a bottle, he does not seem to lose his faith in beating him. His behaviour does not change. Picking up the other bottle from the table, all he says is 'interesting' as if he wasn't talking about his own life. So the cabbie is either too stupid for his own good, something he does not really seem to be, or he's not playing a fair game.

Because the only way to ensure that his victims will always pick the wrong bottle, is by offering them two wrong bottles. The obvious downside of this theory is that the cabbie ends up with one bad bottle as well. But playing a crooked game, he knows the pills. He knows what makes them poisonous. And he could take an antidote before the game is on. By this he makes sure that he cannot be beaten by his opponents. Besides, it makes him sure to be able to outwit Sherlock. He knows Sherlock will be  fascinated by the nature of the game, that it will be tempting him and that he will not consider the intellectual challenge to be a fraud. Showing that he's clever is such a holy action to Sherlock that playing a crooked game does not cross his mind.